The Republican primary for Florida’s 11th Congressional District is coming down to the final ballots, with Joe Strada and Carey Baker separated by fewer than 400 votes and an estimated 1,200 votes still outstanding.

With 98.6% of the expected vote counted, Strada held a razor-thin lead Tuesday night with 27,381 votes, or 33.5%, while Baker was just behind with 26,988 votes, or 33%. The difference: 393 votes. Results remain unofficial until certified.

That means the remaining ballots could determine who advances to the November general election.

Daniel Webster and Carey Baker

Baker won the Lake County portion of the race decisively, receiving 11,902 votes, or 41.6%, compared with Strada’s 9,158 votes, or 32%. Tim Wilkins received 5,756 votes, or 20.1%.

But winning Lake County does not mean winning Congressional District 11.

The district stretches beyond Lake County, and Baker’s advantage here was offset by Strada’s stronger performance elsewhere.

In Sumter County, Strada received 10,489 votes, or 33.3%, followed by Wilkins with 9,622 votes, or 30.5%, and Baker with 9,291 votes, or 29.5%.

Strada also led in the Orange County portion of the district with 7,734 votes, or 35.8%. Baker received 5,795 votes, or 26.8%, while Wilkins had 5,426 votes, or 25.1%.

Combined, those results have left Strada narrowly ahead districtwide — but with the margin smaller than the estimated number of ballots still to be counted, the race remains unsettled.

Every remaining batch of votes now matters. A shift of only a few hundred votes could change the leader and determine the Republican nominee.

It is also unclear at this time whether the final margin will be close enough to trigger a recount. That will depend on where the candidates stand once the remaining votes are counted.

For now, neither Baker’s strong showing in Lake County nor Strada’s current districtwide advantage is enough to put the race away.

The latest totals show:

Joe Strada: 27,381 — 33.5%
Carey Baker: 26,988 — 33%
Tim Wilkins: 20,804 — 25.4%

With just 393 votes separating first and second place, the District 11 Republican primary is coming down to the final votes.